I am currently a PhD student within the Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science at the Jagiellonian University. My PhD research under the supervision of Prof. Rafal Kucharski, focuses on studying behavioural dynamics of two-sided mobility using agent-based microsimulation.
I received my Bachelor’s degree in Civil Engineering at the University of Tabriz and completed my MSc degree in Transport Systems at the Sapienza University of Rome. I did my Master’s thesis in collaboration with CriticalMaas group of TU Delf, on the ride acceptance behavour of ride-sourcing drivers, under supervision of Prof. Guido Gentile and Prof. Rafal Kucharski.
Research interests: Transportation modeling, Mobility as a Service, Two-sided mobility market, Agent-based modelling, Multi-agent systems
List of main publications and preprints
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Modelling the Rise and Fall of Two-Sided Mobility Markets with Microsimulation
Ghasemi, Farnoud,
and Kucharski, Rafał
arXiv preprint arXiv:2208.02496
2022
In this paper, we propose a novel modelling framework to reproduce the market entry strategies for two-sided mobility platforms. In the MaaSSim agent-based simulator, we develop a co-evolutionary model to represent day-to-day dynamics of the two-sided mobility market with agents making rational decisions to maximize their perceived utility. Participation probability of agents depends on utility, composed of: experience, word of mouth and marketing components adjusted by agents every day with the novel S-shaped formulas - better suited (in our opinion) to reproduce market entry dynamics than previous approaches. With such a rich representation, we can realistically model a variety of market entry strategies and create significant network effects to reproduce the rise and fall of two-side mobility platforms. To illustrate model capabilities, we simulate a 400-day evolution of 200 drivers and 2000 travelers on a road-network of Amsterdam. We design a six-stage market entry strategy with consecutive: kick-off, discount, launch, growth, maturity and greed stages. After 25 days the platform offers discounts, yet it starts gaining market share only when the marketing campaign launches at day 50. Campaign finishes after 50 days, which does not stop the growth, now fueled mainly with a positive word of mouth effect and experiences. The platform ends discounts after 200 days and reaches the steady maturity period, after which its greedy strategy leads to collapse of its market share and profit. All above simulated with a single behavioral model, which well reproduces how agents of both sides adapts to platform actions.
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Ride Acceptance Behaviour Investigation of Ride-sourcing Drivers Through Agent-based Simulation
Ghasemi, Farnoud,
Ashkrof, Peyman,
and Kucharski, Rafal
arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.05588
2023
Ride-sourcing platforms such as Uber and Lyft offer drivers (i.e., platform suppliers) considerable freedom of choice in multiple aspects. At the operational level, drivers can freely accept or decline trip requests that can significantly impact system performance in terms of travellers’ waiting time, drivers’ idle time and income. Despite the extensive research into the supply-side operations, the behavioural aspects, particularly drivers’ ride acceptance behaviour remains so far largely unknown. To this end, we reproduce the dynamics of a two-sided mobility platform on the road network of Delft using an agent-based simulator. Then, we implement a ride acceptance decision model enabling drivers to apply their acceptance strategies. Our findings reveal that drivers who follow the decision model, on average, earn higher income compared to drivers who randomly accept trip requests. The overall income equality between drivers with the acceptance decision is higher and travellers experience lower waiting time in this setting.
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Dynamics of the Ride-Sourcing Market: A Coevolutionary Model of Competition between Two-Sided Mobility Platforms
Ghasemi, Farnoud,
Drabicki, Arkadiusz,
and Kucharski, Rafał
arXiv preprint arXiv:2310.05543
2023
There is a fierce competition between two-sided mobility platforms (e.g., Uber and Lyft) fueled by massive subsidies, yet the underlying dynamics and interactions between the competing plat-forms are largely unknown. These platforms rely on the cross-side network effects to grow, they need to attract agents from both sides to kick-off: travellers are needed for drivers and drivers are needed for travellers. We use our coevolutionary model featured by the S-shaped learning curves to simulate the day-to-day dynamics of the ride-sourcing market at the microscopic level. We run three scenarios to illustrate the possible equilibria in the market. Our results underline how the correlation inside the ride-sourcing nest of the agents choice set significantly affects the plat-forms’ market shares. While late entry to the market decreases the chance of platform success and possibly results in "winner-takes-all", heavy subsidies can keep the new platform in competition giving rise to "market sharing" regime.
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Modelling the Rise and Fall of Two-sided Markets
Ghasemi, Farnoud,
and Kucharski, Rafal
In Proceedings of the 23rd International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems
2024
Two-sided markets disrupted our economies, reshaping markets as diverse as tourism (airbnb), mobility (Uber) and food deliveries (UberEats). New market leaders arose leveraging on platform-based business model, questioning well-established paradigms. The underlying processes behind their growth are non-trivial, inherently microscopic, and leverage on complex human interactions. Platforms need to reach critical mass of both supply and demand to trigger the so-called cross-sided network effects. To this end, platforms adopt a variety of strategies to first create the market, then expand it and finally successfully compete with others. Such a complex social system with many non-linear interactions and learning processes calls for a dedicated modelling approach. State-of-the-art methods well estimate the macroscopic equilibrium conditions, but struggle to reproduce the complex growth patterns and individual human behaviour behind. To bridge this gap, we propose the microscopic S-shaped learning model where agents build their perception on the new service with time, affected by both endogenous (service quality) and exogenous (marketing and word-of-mouth) factors cumulated from experiences. We illustrate it with the case of two-sided mobility platform (Uber), where the platform applies a series of marketing actions leading to rise and then fall on the market where 200 drivers serve 2000 travellers on the complex urban network of Amsterdam. Our model is the first to reproduce not only behaviourally sound, but also empirically observed growth trajectories, it remains sensitive to a variety of marketing strategies, allows reproducing the competition between platforms and is designed to be integrated with machine learning algorithms to identify the optimal market entry strategy.